I’ve tried to avoid analysis of the COVID in Africa situation as it’s become a bit of a political football. It is, however, something that is continually coming up in correspondence with clients as nobody is really sure when they can start planning to visit again. Other than a few mentions of the “South African variant”, Australian news media is very selective in reporting (to the point of sensationalism) and rarely provides facts on issues outside of our own little world.
So how bad is it? Sadly, many of the world’s poorest countries exist on the African continent and this quite simply means people cannot “#stayhome” without starving to death. Highest case numbers have been reported in the more developed nations (South Africa, Morocco, Tunisia, Ethiopia and Egypt) which is a product of better testing abilities. Overall, the continent has seen just shy of five million reported cases, only about 3% of the world’s total, and also represents 3% of the world’s deaths. All in all, not a bad result considering many economies had to remain open, and international border closures were wound back earlier than in many developed countries.
Case numbers are considered to be widely underreported and while excess deaths are notably high, the young average age of African populations is considered to have been the main reason for such a high recovery rate. This was despite fears of mass deaths due to the prevalence of HIV (in Botswana, 1 in 4 people are HIV positive).
A recent study by the National Blood Service in South Africa analyzed donations for COVID antibodies. Quite shockingly, it reveled 63% of the Eastern Cape (home to Port Elizabeth) population is estimated to have been infected, based on extrapolated data. The data was consistent across provinces with KwaZulu-Natal (Durban) at 52% and the Free State (Bloemfontein) 46%. Black communities were the worst impacted with white the least, reflecting on differing living conditions. While only a select study, it has raised hope that the country may be far closer to herd immunity than previously thought. It also suggests that the recovery rate (currently sitting at 95%) is in fact considerably higher and the death rate far lower. As a point of reference, South Africa suffers approximately fifteen thousand road deaths per year.
What About Us?
So what does that mean for Australian travelers? Probably not a lot at this stage. Having kept the virus at bay, we have virtually no natural immunity (unlike the UK and USA) and our only option seems to be vaccination. As this increases in pace (especially in NSW and Victoria) our politicians will have to accept the fact that we need a roadmap out. I expect this to become somewhat more of a pressing issue should Europe and the United States have a successful summer travel season (which most are confident of). Personally, I intend to return to Cape Town in November and as a recipient of the Pfizer vaccine (with limited side effects), I’d like to hope there is a home quarantine option. For guests? I’d still write-off 2021, but be somewhat more confident of a return in early 2022. South Africa, being the most developed and accessible, is likely to be the best travel option, so be sure to have a look at out Ultimate South Africa Introduction when planning. And of course, keep up to date at Smart Traveller.
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